Positive trajectory for beef

Addressing the recent Bord Bia meat marketing seminar, Rupert Claxton, meat director at research and consultancy group, Gira, provided ample evidence of the continuing resilience of beef consumption, even as price-driven chicken and pork dominate the meat market.
Global beef consumption has been on an upward trajectory since 2014, rising annually from 65 million tonnes, carcase weight equivalent (CWE), to an estimated 74 million tonnes for last year and 2026. By 2030, Rupert reckons global beef consumption will have risen by another four million tonnes. And it’s not a case of product displacement. Overall meat consumption figures continue to increase across poultrymeat, pork, sheepmeat/goatmeat and beef, all coming at a time when beef production is under considerable pressure, especially in drought-restricted regions of the US, while South America continues to push up production. Interestingly, Chinese consumption is currently in decline, with reductions offset by ongoing growth in consumption in other parts of Asia.

Declining EU farmer and cattle population

Another noteworthy observation by the Gira director, is that EU beef production is in long-term decline. Beef production and consumption within the EU is now in balance, with import and export figures also converging. Excluding the UK, no longer within the EU, the net production of the EU’s 27 Member States, has declined from a recent peak of seven million tonnes CWE to an estimated 6,338 million tonnes in 2026.
The flow of relevant statistics from Rupert continued, with confirmation that there has been considerable divergence in meat producer and retail price levels. Beef producer prices have risen considerably more than the retail price, while pork prices have gone in the opposite direction, reflecting reductions in producer prices in the past 12 months. Meanwhile, both chicken and lamb producer prices have outstripped rising supermarket prices over the past three years. They have been on an upward price trajectory, similar to pork and beef.

Supply and demand trends

Global beef production and consumption trends can be a fascinating study, even if they are not always easily translated into definitive outcomes for Irish cattle producers. Nevertheless, the fact that 2026 global beef supply is likely to fall by 1 per cent, with notable declines in most of the key producing regions, does offer hope for reasonably firm producer prices in the coming months. The reason for the drop is simple – cattle supplies are tight in many regions, even as producers bring cattle to heavier finishing weights.
In summary, the Gira representative noted that the tight meat supply, evident in 2025, continues to influence price and farmgate profitability as we progress through 2026. That is despite low feed costs that would normally deliver production increases and reasonable producer margins. Rupert suggests that animal disease in several regions, allied to a general lack of producer confidence, is hindering production. EU policy, he added, is a serious impediment to farmer confidence. While the long-endured US drought in key cattle-producing states is easing, it will take several years to recover production levels. Rupert noted that, with EU beef production in long-term decline, significant restructuring of slaughtering facilities is inevitable. That discussion has already started in Ireland. There will be implications for every entity in the beef food chain, from production to processing and marts to the choice and supply of beef on the supermarket shelf and butcher’s stall. On-farm profitability, Rupert insists, has been at the cost of margin downstream and is unsustainable. Producers would probably argue that the shoe has been on the other foot for too long. Ultimately, the Gira director insists that beef demand is broadly positive, despite high prices and economic uncertainty.

Increased young consumer demand

Joe Burke, senior meat and livestock manager with Bord Bia, agreed that most of the data highlighted at the seminar pointed towards a positive 2026 for the sector: “When you look at some of our key export markets, for beef in particular, the UK, for instance, has endured a continuous production decline over the past five years. Similarly, around Europe, there has been a 10 per cent reduction in beef output since 2018, continuing out to 2030. In Ireland, we saw very tight cattle numbers through 2025 with no recovery in sight. At the same time, further slippage is unlikely with production stabilising. Given the current buoyant market conditions and good prices, producers are encouraged to push cattle into heavier weights. We are seeing that trend as producers seek to maximise the value of their output.” While there has been some evidence of consumer resistance, Joe put it in context: “It has been mostly at the more expensive end of the product range. Steak and roast demand have reduced. That being said, the market buoyancy for mince, burgers and other lesser cuts has been very positive. There has been a year-on-year beef price increase of over 30 per cent per kilo across the product range, so, to be only seeing a decline of around ten percent in the volume is acceptable.”
Joe highlighted the increasing demand among younger consumers for beef products: “It bucks the trend that we had been worried about previously. We are seeing influencers, including sports personalities, promoting protein as a vital aspect of their diets. They emphasise the role of beef and lamb, as being especially important.”

Declining producer population

One panel discussion chaired by Joe, with beef producer, Tim Meagher, and Copa & Cogeca policy advisor, Ksenija Simovic, referred to declining Irish and EU farm populations. Commenting, Joe said: “That is worrying. The farm population under 35 years’ is down to four per cent with an increasing proportion in excess of 65 years old. We need to examine ways of incentivising and encouraging younger people into the industry. Even progressive and profitable farms are challenged to identify active farming inheritors.”
There are always the imponderable challenges to farming and livestock production, Joe explained: “Disease is a significant threat. Until bluetongue took a foothold around Europe, disease challenges would have been low on the threat list to meat production. Apart from mortality, fertility, and productivity are impacted by these diseases. Likewise, avian influenza, African swine fever and other disease threats are emerging as significant threats to production and animal health generally.”

Sheep production nears crisis stage

While the pig sector maintains production with fewer producers and the Irish suckler sector has hopefully plateaued, the sheep sector would seem to be in long-term decline. The figures back up this analysis, said Joe: “There has been a significant decline. Last year saw a drop in output of 500,000 sheep being slaughtered. That followed a decline
of 300,000 in 2023. Collectively, that’s a huge reduction over a three-year period. It is reflective of a belief that sheep production is a labour intensive, low margin enterprise. Not only at farm level but also as a key economic sector, the loss of output is significant.”
He is optimistic that beef prices can be maintained this year: “Supply will remain tight, with strong demand for Irish beef in our main markets. We are back from recent price peaks, but we are still almost one euro per kilo ahead of this time last year, with optimism that prices can move ahead in the coming period.”