Future-proofing the Irish beef sector

It was interesting to hear the EU Commissioner for Health and Animal Welfare, Olivér Várhelyi, state recently that EU food standards and rules do not end at the EU border. While I’m sure this is the case for hygiene and safety, European consumers’ desire for sustainability verification is not currently applied to imported products as witnessed by the increasing imports of beef from high-carbon-emitting countries, which are dampening beef prices across the EU. This dampening of finished beef prices has resulted in mixed supply and demand signals for the Irish and EU beef sector in recent times. On the demand side, as European and UK retailers find ever increasing sources of beef from non-EU suppliers like New Zealand, Brazil, Paraguay and Australia, Irish and European beef and finished cattle prices have stalled or even fallen back, as is the case with Irish beef producers.

Is suckler farmer confidence merited?

On the supply side, suckler cow numbers in Ireland have increased for the first time since 2016 with figures from the Irish Cattle Breeding Federation (ICBF) confirming that suckler cow numbers increased by 15,154 head (a 2 per cent rise) to 761,709 as of late March, still well reduced on the numbers of suckler cows on Irish farms a decade ago. While, clearly, one year of positivity does not yet represent a trend, it does seem that the combination of positive cattle prices and the impact of targeted State supports such as the €52m Suckler Carbon Efficiency Programme and the National Beef Welfare Scheme have helped stabilise and even increase farmer confidence.

Policy responses

The positive impact of targeted supports is in line with the profile of the breeding herd. Less than 25 per cent of beef suckler farms operate a calf-to-finished-beef system, while 26 per cent of dairy-calf-to-beef farms are finishing cattle also, according to Teagasc. The impact is also in line with an analysis of the variations in suckler cow numbers going back to the early 1970s. Following the collapse in cattle prices in 1974, suckler cow numbers in Ireland declined to just over 450,000 head by the end of the 1980s. In the McSharry CAP reforms of 1992 direct payments to farmers, including a suckler cow payment, were introduced and intervention supports were diminished and eventually wound down.
This direct support system saw Irish suckler cow numbers increase to over one million head by the end of the 1990s and it was the dilution of these direct payments, firstly under decoupling rules in 2005, and more particularly in the CAP reform plan of 2021, that has seen Irish suckler cow numbers decline, despite the beginnings of increased finished cattle prices around that time.
So, it would seem that the key lesson to be gleaned is that targeted suckler supports have a bigger impact than finished cattle prices over the long term, given the continuation of the low percentage of suckler calf producers bringing their stock to slaughter. But clearly a combination of both is helpful, which is why the current CAP review is important.

Policy support options

Given the overarching role that decarbonisation/sustainability now plays as the key route-to-market, a meaningful CAP reform surely must focus its firepower in this area. For Ireland this means focusing on the incentivisation of early finishing, given how core it is to our current national decarbonisation strategy.

Ireland’s climate goals and the beef sector

The Irish Government’s Climate Action Plan mandates a 25 per cent reduction in agricultural emissions. Lowering the age at slaughter is a core strategy in Teagasc’s Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) because a shorter lifespan means less enteric methane produced and less manure management required (Teagasc): 2025 target – reduce the average slaughter age to 24-25 months; and 2030 target – reduce the average slaughter age to 22-23 months. 

Current reality and setbacks

Despite steady reductions seen up to 2022, progress has stalled and partially reversed: the national average age for finished steers hovers between 26 and 26.5 months, and average finishing ages for heifers have actually increased. To get back on track, the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) launched an Improved Liveweight Performance Action Plan, focusing on genetics, animal health, and diet. However, official plans, specifically detailing how to mandate and support these slaughter age targets, have experienced administrative delays according to Teagasc (https://teagasc.ie/news--events/daily/reducing-age-of-slaughter-in-beef-cattle/).
A key question must be whether the limited and reducing levels of support in the CAP have the firepower to deliver a fundamental shift in important decarbonisation measures like finishing age.

CAP financing accounts for less than 30 per cent of the EU’s total expenditure. But based on data from the Eurostat chart above (Key figures on the European food chain – 2025 edition), this is hardly an excessive level of support.

There is a continuing disconnect between EU regulators and the weak laissez-faire approach to food pricing, which is left solely in the hands of price-dominant, large, grocery retailers. Unless this issue meets joined-up thinking in a new CAP, the commissioner’s reference to standards being applied across imported as well as local food will remain shallow and hollow.