Defending Europe’s food security

Commenting on the actions and utterances of President Donald Trump is a dangerous exercise. No sooner are his comments published in print media than he has changed his mind, in quite extraordinary ways. Writing an editorial, then, can sometimes leave hostages to fortune. Anyway, it would appear that the Iran/US/Israel/Lebanon conflicts are nearing an end, of sorts at least. That being the case, as farmers, we may hope that a return to some kind of normality in terms of oil and fertiliser supplies and prices is in sight. The timeline, however, should the war really be over, will be an extended one. The oil and gas supply lag time can be calculated in months if not years, especially when infrastructure repairs are considered. Higher farm input costs are baked in for the foreseeable future and must be borne at a time of low food commodity prices. This is at odds with higher retail food prices where the cost of food production is, seemingly, well down the total consumer price chain.
If there is a silver lining on the clouds of horrific wars being engaged in around the world, it is an increasing realisation that food availability is far from secure. Global food production is based on a model that is extremely reliant on inputs from politically unstable sources. Whether that will concentrate the minds of European leaders sufficiently to protect our EU food production model and encourage continued food supply from indigenous sources is questionable. Minds are focused elsewhere. Whether it is on climate change and the imposition of carbon taxes, as well as the CBAM-enforced reduction in fertiliser imports from carbon-heavy producers, or whether it is on an acknowledged necessity of expanding the EU’s military defence capabilities, the basic need to protect food production and supply may be down the list of priorities.
This matters greatly as Ireland takes on a six-month-duration presidency of the Council of the European Union. It is a role that, while watered down in importance with the appointment of permanent council presidents, currently António Costa, still offers a degree of influence for the Irish incumbents. Our ministers chair meetings and may be able to advance agendas of importance to our country, however subtly.
The ongoing agenda is varied and complex. For Europe’s farmers, the development of a new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a priority. The EU’s agricultural budget could fall from €386bn currently, to €300bn under proposals for the next CAP budget. Addressing that shortfall should be a priority for the Irish presidency but it’s not the only one. Of importance too, is EU policy around where and at what cost, fertiliser is sourced. The carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), as currently structured, will be an enormous financial burden on farmers, unless and until indigenous fertiliser manufacture is adequate to meet demand. Even then, a captive fertiliser market is not in EU farmers’ best interests. Current calculations show that CBAM, without abatement through an emissions trading scheme, will cost Europe’s farmers €800m this year, rising to €12bn by 2034. Carbon tax has already cost Irish farmers €1bn since 2020, with further annual increases planned by Government.

Meanwhile, the developing European Financial Markets strategy must include opportunities for European citizens and businesses, including farmers, to manage their financial requirements more competitively. An increased EU defence budget must define defence as including food as well as armament security. A sustainable indigenous food production strategy must be a primary aspect of defending the European Union. The Irish presidency comes at a critical time for the European Union.