Feed, fertiliser, and fuel challenges

The three Fs have come centre stage again this year. As we enter the second quarter of 2026, there has not been such uncertainty since the Covid-19 pandemic. We have already seen higher feed costs this year, with an extended winter period on most farms. Fertiliser prices are up on foot of the Middle East wars and may have risen further by the time this editorial is read. In any case, the production and supply of fertiliser have already been disrupted and will take months to settle, even amid a peace deal emerging between the US/Israel and Iran. That means increased prices are at least baked in for the period when fertiliser use is maximised on Irish farms. Without wishing to be alarmist, the possibility of fertiliser scarcity is another imponderable. As ever, we are at the end of a long and unreliable supply chain for whatever fertiliser stocks are available.

Fuel cost increases would also take time to soften in the event of peace breaking out. Apart from the infrastructural damage already done to oil and gas refining facilities, the shipping disruption will mean that every country will be jockeying for available supplies. Looked at globally, China can outbid India for whatever resources it needs to grow food and keep its economy functioning. Ireland is in a vulnerable position with little purchasing power or supply resilience. Every sector is feeling the brunt of input cost increases. Irish electricity costs were already among the highest in Europe and may now be set to increase substantially. The primary producer is, as ever, in the front line. Despite assurances that renewable energy would provide some supply certainty and cost benefits, the reality is quite the opposite. In summary, Irish food producers are extraordinarily vulnerable to the repercussions of the latest US intervention in the Middle East.

Bluetongue disease is another uncertain challenge, the likelihood being that it is well entrenched in the Irish environment and will add a semi-permanent cost to livestock production, with vaccination only mitigating potentially devastating consequences for our livestock.

Is it any wonder that increasing numbers of Irish landowners are pondering their options? Weekly, we see new proposals for solar farms and other renewable energy infrastructure and supply developments. The potential for locked-in contracts with annualised inflation-linked lease increases stretching out several decades cannot be easily dismissed.

It should be acknowledged that the world would seem to be in a more precarious position with regard to food security than many would have predicted at the start of 2026. Small surpluses across several food products including grain and milk have lulled consumers into a mindset that food will always be cheap and available in abundance. Despite protestations of a cost-of-living crisis in relation to food, the reality is that the average consumer spends little more than one tenth of their income on food. That can hardly be regarded as an excessive strain on a household budget for the mainstay of their vital living requirements.

Beef supplies are supposedly scarce, yet this year’s return to finishers bears no resemblance to their production costs or the price of cattle purchased last autumn. Forever and a day, food producers have been assured that prices would eventually rise to reflect the cost of production and a viable return to the producer commensurate with their labour, capital and input costs. With a few occasions of exception, that has not been consistently the case. Should we be optimistic that change is finally coming?