There is a tide in our affairs

Much of the change we have experienced in recent decades was achieved by stealth and/or inevitability. The decimation of farm numbers since the middle of the last century has been quite extraordinary. Moving from 300,000 farmers to little more than 100,000, mirrors the same experiences in agricultural communities across the world. When we joined the European Economic Community in 1973 there were 65,000 Irish milk producers. Now we are touching 17,000 and that is after a period of rapid expansion and opportunity since the demise of EU milk quotas. There has been an influx of new entrants, but barely enough to reinvigorate and replenish the Irish dairy sector with youth and energy. Still, despite the current travails with falling farmgate prices, nitrates reductions and often invalid criticism over the environmental impact of milk production, there are ongoing opportunities for young enthusiasts to enter dairying with the prospect, at least, of a long-term viable income.
This is not the case in several other sectors, even though, with reasonable scale and high levels of production efficiency, there are options in dry-stock production to make a full- or part-time living, at least for now. Leave aside tillage, which is dependent on large scale to justify the investment involved, apart from random niche opportunities. The long-term viability for many dry-stock farms is heavily dependent on ongoing and increasing subventions from government and EU as well as an indefinite postponement or even cancellation of several trade deal negotiations which the EU seems fully committed to. The continuing growth of middle-class consumer societies across the globe, especially in high-population countries in South America and South-East Asia, means that the pressure is firmly on the EU to increase trade with these countries, even if it means sacrificing the relative protectionism for European agriculture, particularly in meat production. Increasing global consumption of animal proteins may soften the impact for European producers but barring climate catastrophe stifling livestock production in low-cost countries, European producer ability to compete will reduce in the decades ahead.
That is the negative side of the equation. On the positive side, and in seeming contradiction to the foregoing analysis, there has rarely been such opportunity for landowners as exists right now. Traditional production is and will continue to be under economic and environmental pressure, and I include dairy in that. However, as with every cloud, the solutions to climate change mitigation can deliver opportunity. For land ill-suited to pasture-based livestock production, the re-emergence of forestry as a viable option cannot be ignored. Our interview with Paddy Bruton of Forestry Services Limited illustrates the long-term positive prospects for a viable income from tree planting. We are, at last, likely to see the development of a biomethane industry at scale. That, too, will offer financial opportunity for farmers who wish to remain as pasture-based farmers without necessarily being at the mercy of volatile livestock prices. While planting solar panels on land is anathema for many of us, the economic return to the landowner above most livestock production options is unarguable. Organic farming is more heavily subsidised than ever before. While these subsidies exist, the figures also add up for many interested farmers. We may even see the land itself, as a carbon store, deliver income opportunities for farmers. Agriculture is changing irrevocably. We can either curse the incoming tide or attempt to rise with it.