A giveaway budget expected

Politicians were busy getting their messages out before the anticipated general election. Protestations that the Government will run to 2026 are probably unrealistic. Election fever takes on a life of its own and the momentum cannot be sustained indefinitely. Agriculture minister, Charlie McConalogue announced the establishment of a Generational Renewal Commission. We must hope it will deliver practical proposals to rejuvenate our farmer age profile. Elsewhere, the taoiseach, Simon Harris, turned up at every agricultural event going and already appears to be in full election mode. His ability to engage with and listen to farmers at agricultural shows up and down the country suggests a genuine interest in understanding the issues facing the agricultural community. Time will tell. Last month also saw a whole-of-Government commitment to protect our reduced Nitrates Derogation. Again, time will tell as to how deep that commitment goes and how successful the industry will be in maintaining the current derogation level, which will ultimately depend on water quality improvements coming through before the next review.
In Upfront this month, we point out the inadequacy of kicking the can down the road in relation to the introduction of a Residential Zoned Land Tax. While a postponement is better than implementing an unfair burden on affected practising farmers, a permanent solution would have been a better outcome. Farmers, in general, have more than enough uncertainty to deal with.
Next month will see the presentation of the last budget of the current Government. At a time when the country is running a significant financial surplus, allied to full employment and buoyant exports, the presumption might have been that there would be a focus on reducing the national debt, accumulating financial reserves ahead of the next recession (there is always a recession somewhere in the future) and generally implementing a cautious, countercyclical strategy for managing the country’s finances. While there is commitment to a rainy-day fund, in practice, this budget promises, or threatens, to be a spendthrift exercise ahead of the general election. We know more money needs to be spent here, there, and everywhere. Every lobby group in Ireland, including agricultural organisations, is seeking some of the expected financial largesse on offer. Meanwhile, the perennial over-spenders will have to be accommodated. Chief among them is our health service. There are many good things that can be said about it, but its ability to function within a generous budget allocation is not one of them. If money could solve the problems of our unwieldy public health service, it would have been solved long ago. We spend more, per capita, on health than most countries and our outcomes are not better than any international average. Housing is another key spending area for the government. It has thrown billions at the shortfall in housing requirements, and some would say it is not enough. More houses are being built and more people employed building them than at any time since the financial crash. We need a balance between enough houses and a surplus leading to a price collapse.
Farm organisations are not behind the door in lobbying for increased financial supports. As long as the market does not deliver a viable return for food produced on Irish farms, subventions will be required to protect our rural farm economy. Likewise, as more is asked of farmers to implement climate change mitigation measures and enhanced environmental standards for the common good, support from the public purse is a reasonable request.