Triumphant Trump

Donald Trump pulled off a major electoral coup, upstaging the liberal agenda and winning back the White House for the Republicans. The 78-year-old becomes the 47th US president for the next four years. Control of the Senate, and possibly the House of Representatives, is also set to go to the Republican Party and, equally importantly, Trump also won the popular vote, giving him a dual mandate, both from the Electoral College and the majority of voters across the US. It was a solid victory that destroyed all hope that Kamala Harris would become the first female US president. This is the first time a Republican candidate has won the popular vote in a presidential election since George W Bush won in 2004.
Fox News called the election very, very early in the process – other news outlets erred on the side of caution for a bit, anyway. But Fox, as it turned out, wasn’t jumping the gun at all – the Republican Party-biased broadcaster had called it correctly. As the all-important ‘swing states’ fell to Trump one by one, it became clear that he had pulled off an incredible electoral feat to regain the presidency. The comeback king, despite criminal convictions and condemnation by every Hollywood celebrity worth quoting, is set for four more years as leader of the most powerful country on the planet. The truth of the matter is that Donald Trump is a master tactician and a seemingly successful businessman who went with the simple message to the American people that he would ‘make America great again' – again. Economic realities trumped moral and liberal agendas as the inflated price of eggs sent voters in search of better value for their hard-earned wages. While inflation has been curbed in the US, prices remain elevated from where they were when Trump was voted out of office. Full employment, booming stock markets and falling interest rates were simply not enough to persuade American voters to put their faith in the Democratic nominee. ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ except by any rational economic analysis, the US economy is in good health after four years of Biden. That matters little if the message is that Harris is untrusted on economic strategy, while Trump is seen, somewhat irrationally, as an economic wizard.
If Donald Trump can get into the White House before the law catches up on him, he can act with impunity, absolving himself of all criminal allegations and prosecutions. After that, trade tariffs, abandonment of Ukrainian arms funding and a free pass for Benjamin Netanyahu may only be the beginning of a rollercoaster four years. On the other hand, he may just decide to play golf and leave the complicated, messy business of governing to others – JD Vance as the power behind the throne? Maybe not.
For Irish food producers, the big question is how a Trump presidency will affect us. Potential tariffs on butter and whiskey would be problematic and costly. On the wider economic front, if Trump decides to force US multi-nationals to repatriate, our corporate tax revenues could fall of a cliff. All the more reason for our incoming government to reinforce the strategy of maintaining Ireland as a strategic and critically important base for foreign direct investment. Increased capital expenditure on energy and water infrastructure, more housing and lower personal taxes will benefit everyone, including US corporates and their Irish employees.